China’s control over critical metals is a growing concern in the industry, with recent export controls on antimony causing alarm among insiders. The move by China’s Ministry of Commerce to impose export controls on antimony has raised questions about Beijing’s intentions and the potential impact on global supply chains. Antimony, a crucial mineral used in various industries such as bullets, nuclear weapons production, and lead-acid batteries, is now subject to restrictions that will take effect on September 15.
Lewis Black, CEO of Canada-based Almonty Industries, expressed surprise at the confrontational nature of China’s latest export controls on antimony. He noted that just three months ago, such a move would have been unthinkable. The implications of this decision are significant for the industry, as it signals a shift in China’s approach to critical minerals. Black highlighted the lack of a contingency plan among industry players, leaving them vulnerable to China’s dominance in the global supply chain.
The significance of antimony and tungsten, both critical minerals listed by the U.S., cannot be understated. Tungsten, known for its hardness comparable to a diamond, is used in a wide range of applications, including weapons, semiconductors, and industrial cutting machines. The proximity of antimony and tungsten on the periodic table underscores their importance in various industries. Black’s concerns about the potential ramifications of China’s export controls on these minerals reflect a broader unease within the industry.
China’s dominance in the production of antimony and tungsten further complicates the situation. The U.S. Geological Survey’s latest annual report revealed that China accounted for 48% of global antimony mine production in 2023, while the U.S. had no marketable antimony production. Similarly, China’s stronghold on the global tungsten supply underscores the country’s strategic advantage in critical minerals. Industry experts like Tony Adcock, executive chair of Tungsten Metals Group, foresee similar export restrictions on other rare earths and minerals in the near future.
The military implications of China’s control over critical minerals like tungsten cannot be ignored. Christopher Ecclestone, a mining strategist, highlighted the vital role of tungsten in defense production, making it a strategic asset for countries like the U.S. Seeking to reduce reliance on Chinese tungsten, the U.S. has enacted legislation to prohibit the use of Chinese tungsten in military equipment starting in 2026. This move reflects a broader strategy to safeguard national security interests and reduce vulnerabilities in the supply chain.
The geopolitical dynamics surrounding critical minerals have intensified in recent years, with China’s actions prompting concerns about supply chain security. Markus Herrmann Chen, co-founder of China Macro Group, emphasized China’s efforts to coordinate the minerals value chain and secure strategic mineral resources. The Third Plenum meeting of policymakers in July underscored China’s commitment to enhancing its supply chain resilience and protecting its geoeconomic interests. These developments point to a more proactive approach by China in safeguarding its access to critical minerals.
As the industry grapples with China’s growing control over critical metals, companies in the U.S. and elsewhere are exploring alternative sources to mitigate supply chain risks. Energy Fuels, a leading supplier of uranium oxide in the U.S., is diversifying its product line to include rare earths. By leveraging its expertise in handling radioactive materials, Energy Fuels aims to replicate China’s success in extracting rare earth elements from minerals like monazite. This strategic shift reflects a broader trend among industry players to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains.
Despite the uncertainties surrounding China’s export controls on critical minerals, industry insiders remain cautious about the potential implications. The fluctuating prices of antimony and tungsten in the global market reflect the uncertainty and volatility in the industry. The Pentagon’s efforts to replenish reserves of critical metals like antimony further underscore the strategic importance of these minerals in defense production. As tensions escalate in the geopolitical arena, the race to secure critical minerals intensifies, highlighting the strategic value of these resources.
In conclusion, China’s growing control over critical metals has raised concerns among industry insiders, prompting a reevaluation of supply chain strategies and diversification efforts. The implications of China’s export controls on antimony and tungsten extend beyond the industry, impacting global trade dynamics and national security interests. As countries seek to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains and secure access to critical minerals, the industry faces a period of uncertainty and transition. By exploring alternative sources and enhancing supply chain resilience, companies can navigate the evolving landscape of critical minerals and mitigate supply chain risks.